Since the fourth quarter of last year, the rising price of domestic fishmeal has promoted many traders to actively purchase meat and bone meal in the external market, driving the international price of meat and bone meal to go up with the market. At the same time, the import volume of meat and bone meal in China this year has increased significantly year-on-year. However, since this spring, the domestic demand for aquatic products has continued to be poor, making the meat and bone meal market transactions continue to be light. In addition, the price of related protein raw materials is in a weak operating pattern. Therefore, the domestic meat and bone meal prices continue to weaken in the near future; At the same time, the downturn of domestic meat and bone meal has also restricted the purchase of domestic traders in the external market, and the price of international meat and bone meal has dropped accordingly. Specific JCI analysis is as follows:
1、 The volume of international meat and bone meal market was light, and the quotation fell sharply
Since the beginning of this year, boosted by the soaring price of domestic fishmeal, domestic traders have actively purchased meat and bone meal in the international market, and promoted the international price of meat and bone meal to "rise with the tide". However, in recent years, with the arrival of a large number of meat and bone meal in Hong Kong, coupled with the very weak demand for meat and bone meal in China, the enthusiasm of traders to continue to purchase meat and bone meal has been greatly dampened. Therefore, at present, the international meat and bone meal transaction market is relatively calm, and the price has also declined compared with the previous period. According to JCI, the current external price of Australian meat and bone meal is CNF550-570 dollars/ton, down about 50 dollars/ton from the previous period; The external price of Uruguayan meat and bone meal was about US $440/ton, down about US $70/ton from the previous period.
2、 Domestic meat and bone meal supply pressure is prominent, and demand market performance is sluggish
According to customs data, the import volume of meat and bone meal in China in May was 14001 tons, more than doubled year on year; From January to May, China imported 59864 tons of meat and bone meal, up 93.4% year on year; Since this spring, the pattern of excessive precipitation has continued to restrict the demand for aquatic products, making the sales of meat and bone meal very slow, and exerting pressure on the price of meat and bone meal to continue to weaken. According to JCI, the current reference price of Australian meat and bone meal in China is 4900-5000 yuan/ton, down 200-300 yuan/ton from the beginning of June; The reference price of Uruguayan meat and bone meal was 4000-4100 yuan/ton, down 100-150 yuan/ton from the beginning of June. At the same time, the quality of meat and bone meal at the port is uneven, and the price of some poor quality meat and bone meal is lower.
3、 Weak prices of related protein raw materials continue to exert pressure on the domestic meat and bone meal market
The price of domestic fishmeal has further declined in recent years. According to JCI, the current low transaction price of ordinary fishmeal in Shanghai Port is 11000-11300 yuan/ton, down 500-800 yuan/ton from mid-June; The low transaction price of super steam fish meal was about 11500 yuan/ton, down more than 500 yuan/ton from the middle of June; At the same time, although the domestic soybean meal spot has oscillated, its weak atmosphere has not improved; Therefore, under the influence of the continued weakening of the price of related protein raw materials, the short-term domestic meat and bone meal market lacks the support of favorable themes, and the risk of decline is still high.
In general, under the situation that the pattern of excessive precipitation in the south continues to restrict the demand for aquatic products in the short term, the domestic meat and bone meal market lacks the support of new favorable themes. Under the huge supply pressure, the weak pattern of its price is temporarily difficult to improve. However, due to the relatively high initial purchase costs of many traders in the meat and bone meal market, the current domestic price of meat and bone meal is close to the cost line, which may have some support for the price of meat and bone meal. On the other hand, according to some insiders, the quality of Australian meat and bone meal in China is relatively poor, and the price of some Australian meat and bone meal with low protein is obviously low, which has a corresponding impact on the market price and deserves the attention of the industry.